delay in the 2021 Census impacts policy making

 ### Key Points

- Research suggests the delay in the 2021 Census impacts policy making by relying on outdated 2011 data, affecting resource allocation and welfare schemes.

- It seems likely that millions are excluded from benefits like food subsidies, with over 10 crore potentially affected.

- The evidence leans toward delays in political representation and social justice policies due to lack of updated demographic data.

- An unexpected detail is how this delay also hampers tracking progress on international goals like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

### Impact on Resource Allocation

The delay means policymakers use 2011 data, leading to inefficiencies in distributing resources for healthcare, education, and infrastructure. For example, rapid urbanization since 2011 isn't captured, causing overcrowding in cities and underutilization in rural areas.

### Impact on Welfare Schemes

Programs like the National Food Security Act (NFSA) cover 67% of the population based on 2011 data (121 crore), but with a projected 137 crore by 2020, over 10 crore people, including 2.8 crore in Uttar Pradesh and 1.8 crore in Bihar, may be excluded from food subsidies. Other schemes, like the National Social Assistance Programme, face budgeting issues due to outdated data.

### Impact on Political and Social Policies

The delay stalls delimitation for fair legislative representation and delays women's reservation implementation. It also undermines reservation policies for marginalized groups, lacking updated caste data for social justice.

### Broader Implications

This delay affects economic planning, youth programs, and international commitments, with the census now expected in early 2025 and data by 2026, risking policy missteps and social disparities.

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### Comprehensive Analysis: Impact of Delayed 2021 Census on Policy Making in India

The postponement of India's 2021 Census, initially scheduled and delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with fieldwork now expected to begin in early 2025 and data release by 2026, has created a significant data gap. This delay, relying on the 2011 Census data, has profound implications for policy making across various domains, affecting resource allocation, welfare schemes, political representation, social justice, and international commitments. Below, we explore these impacts in detail, drawing from recent analyses and official statements.

#### Background and Context

India's decennial census, conducted under the Census Act of 1948, is a cornerstone for evidence-based policymaking, providing comprehensive demographic, economic, and social data. The 2021 Census was notified in March 2019, with phases planned for housing data collection from April to September 2020 and population enumeration from February 9 to 28, 2021. However, the COVID-19 pandemic led to indefinite postponement, with subsequent extensions of administrative boundary freezing dates, the latest to June 30, 2023, pushing the exercise into 2025. This delay, unprecedented in India's 150-year census history, has left policymakers relying on 2011 data, now over a decade old.

#### Impact on Resource Allocation

Accurate population data is vital for allocating resources effectively across healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The delay means planning is based on outdated 2011 figures, which do not reflect current population trends, distribution, or socio-economic conditions. For instance, rapid urbanization and migration since 2011 are not captured, leading to:

- Overcrowding in urban areas, with inadequate housing, transportation, and public services.

- Underutilization of resources in depopulating rural areas, skewing development plans.

A Policy Circle article highlights this as a "data desert," hindering effective governance and risking inefficient distribution [A nation in the dark: Census delay risks India’s future](https://www.policycircle.org/policy/india-census-2021-and-policy/). The Reuters report quotes Pronab Sen, former chief statistician, noting the impact on statistical surveys, including economic data, inflation, and jobs estimates, further complicating resource allocation [Delay in India's census hurting quality of survey reports, says official](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/delay-indias-census-hurting-quality-survey-reports-says-official-2023-07-19/).

#### Impact on Welfare Schemes

Welfare schemes, critical for social security, rely heavily on census data for beneficiary identification and coverage. The National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, aims to cover 67% of the population, based on 2011 data (121 crore population, covering ~80 crore). However, with the population projected at 137 crore by 2020, coverage should ideally be ~92 crore, leaving over 10 crore people potentially excluded. The Hindu reports specific impacts, with 2.8 crore in Uttar Pradesh and 1.8 crore in Bihar missing out, affecting food subsidy entitlements [Explained | Impact of delay in Census 2021](https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/explained-impact-of-delay-in-census-2021/article35951657.ece). States may demand increased quotas post-census, but the delay prevents timely expansion.

The National Social Assistance Programme, initially using census data, now relies on the 2011 Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC), suggesting beneficiaries (widows, disabled, elderly below poverty line) should double from 3.09 crore to 6 crore. However, budget constraints and outdated data hinder planning, as noted in the same report. Other schemes, like the Integrated Child Development Scheme, face similar issues, with outdated data leading to caps or quotas in funding, such as per anganwadi.

#### Impact on Political Representation and Social Justice

The census is crucial for delimitation, determining parliamentary and state assembly seat allocations. The delay stalls this process, potentially leading to unequal representation, especially with the 84th Constitutional Amendment freezing delimitation until 2026, based on the first census post-2026. This also delays implementing the 33% women's reservation, requiring updated demographic data for fair distribution.

Social justice policies, particularly reservation for Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes, are undermined. The lack of updated caste data, a contentious issue with demands for a caste census, affects affirmative action and inclusivity. Policy Circle notes this undermines reservation policies, risking social disparities [A nation in the dark: Census delay risks India’s future](https://www.policycircle.org/policy/india-census-2021-and-policy/).

#### Impact on Migration and Urbanization

The census provides critical data on migration patterns and urbanization, essential for urban planning and managing migrant needs. The 2011 data, released with D-tables in 2019, is outdated, unable to address current trends, especially highlighted during the COVID-19 lockdown when stranded migrants needed relief. Drishti IAS reports the delay hinders understanding internal and international migration, affecting planning for healthcare and social services, and schemes like One Nation, One Ration Card [Delay in Decennial Census](https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-editorials/delay-in-decennial-census). The expected 2023-24 census data will capture trends towards smaller towns and assess MGNREGA's impact on distress migration, but the delay means missed opportunities for timely interventions.

#### Impact on Youth Programs and Economic Planning

With half of India's population under 25, accurate data is vital for designing education, skill development, and employment programs. The delay challenges addressing rising unemployment and evolving job markets, as noted in Policy Circle [A nation in the dark: Census delay risks India’s future](https://www.policycircle.org/policy/india-census-2021-and-policy/). Census data is foundational for calculating economic indicators like GDP, unemployment rates, and poverty levels, impacting economic policy making and business decisions. The Reuters report emphasizes the impact on survey quality, affecting economic data reliability [Delay in India's census hurting quality of survey reports, says official](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/delay-indias-census-hurting-quality-survey-reports-says-official-2023-07-19/).

#### Impact on International Commitments

India's progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty, healthcare, and education relies on census data. The delay affects tracking and reporting, potentially diminishing global standing due to unreliable statistics. Policy Circle highlights this as a risk to international commitments [A nation in the dark: Census delay risks India’s future](https://www.policycircle.org/policy/india-census-2021-and-policy/).

#### Broader Implications and Data Alternatives

The prolonged delay, now extending to 2025-26, exacerbates risks of policy missteps, resource misallocation, and social disparities. Fragmented databases like Aadhaar (90% coverage), PAN, and mobile usage data are insufficient for comprehensive planning, lacking the unified demographic insights the census provides. The BBC notes criticism around the National Population Register (NPR) update alongside the census, adding controversy, especially with citizenship law debates [Census in India: Baffling lack of data is hurting Indians](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-64282374).

#### Conclusion

The delay in the 2021 Census, relying on 2011 data, significantly hampers policy making, affecting resource allocation, welfare schemes, political representation, social justice, migration planning, youth programs, economic indicators, and international commitments. With the census now slated for early 2025 and data release by 2026, the extended gap risks inefficiencies, inequities, and missed opportunities, underscoring the need for timely data collection to ensure effective governance.